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July 21, 2019
  • Value Versus Cheapness: Same, Same, But Different

    Cheapness has existed as an investment concept forever, but it became institutionalized with the Fama/French’s 1993 three factor model. Cheapness has never been the same as hundreds of billions was poured into equity investment strategies focused on buying “low price to something” stocks supported by reams of back test data. In addition, thousands of small investment professionals and amateurs replicate much of the process the large firms employ via access to abundant datasets on Yahoo! Finance […more]

  • The Gross Profitability Trap

    “But this time, it’s different!” More foolish words are rarely spoken in the financial industry, but they always seem to find their way back into the stock market lexicon. A firm’s intrinsic value should always be a function of discounted future cash flows that incorporate a comprehensive understanding of profitability, growth, competition, and risk. Occasionally, alternative approaches can find favor in enough market participants’ stock selection to distort the foundational understanding of firm value. […more]

  • Valuation Dividend – Quarterly Report Q1 2019

    The memories are still fresh that the US large cap equity market lost more than 10% of its value in Q4 of 2018, with ~9% alone in December. Barely did investors have a chance to regroup, and the Russell 1000 index rose 8.4% in January and closed 19Q1 14% higher. The Fed that turned dovish was the prime catalyst behind the US equity market rally. On January 4, Fed Chairman Powell indicated inflation was muted and the central bank would be in no hurry to raise rates, leading the R1000 […more]

  • Common Sense Not Drama

    With Q1’19 behind us, we were again reminded why most strategies which trade in and out of the market are nothing more than a Siren call luring a portfolio to crash on the rocks of chasing returns. Much better to be Odysseus and put wax plugs into your ears and focus on the long term to avoid buying high and selling low as volatility trashes your sense of normality. After Q4’18, few people had much appetite for equities, thinking only bad news would prevail in the year ahead. Yet, by the end of Q1’19, US equity markets were up double digits. […more]