Quantitative investment strategies have intellectually dominated the financial industry for sixty years. In practice, however, fundamental analysis offers crucial advantages. Therefore, it’s time for the two camps to overcome their differences and work together. […more]
This article first appeared on RealClearMarkets.com February 17th 2021 “All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.” Arthur Schopenhauer Our last […more]
This article first appeared on RealClearMarkets.com December 29th 2020 DEAR EDITOR: I am an investor. Experts say valuation does not matter. Please tell me the truth; does valuation matter? VIRGINIA O’HANLON 115 WEST NINETY-FIFTH STREET […more]
This article first appeared on RealClearMarkets.com December 10th 2020 A trend among investment managers is to focus on “evidence-based” investing, which boils down to adopting strategies that have strong empirical support and ideally a strong […more]
Today the irony continues, as the intellectual foundations in financial economics that underpinned Bogle’s incredible success are much less robust than they appeared in the early 70’s, yet the push for passive investing is stronger and more fervent than ever. For proactive, process-oriented, intelligent advisors this will create a great opportunity to distinguish yourself from the growing herd of “commodity” advisors who preach little more than fee minimization, rather than alpha generation or negative alpha avoidance. […more]
Only in 2008 have valuations been as attractive as now. Today, the market is essentially pricing in 0% sales growth over the next five years, not as harsh as the -15% priced in during the 2008 lows, but very harsh compared to the expected 20% to 30% growth these firms have typically delivered over a five year period. Unlike 2008 there will not be liquidity issues driving economic decisions and panicking investors. This is a confidence crisis similar to 9/11. As medical policy catches and surpasses the virus, confidence will return and economic activity will march forward. Already, in China, restaurants have reopened to crowds, and society is returning to business as usual.
The stock market today is trading at valuation levels last seen in 2008, before an unprecedented wealth creation bull market swept away the fear of the Great Recession. Then as now, it’s always about the expectations built into market prices.
Over the past couple months, worsening macro economic conditions, declining corporate profitability and a bottomless stock market have investors longing for the good old days when the economy delivered steady increases in GDP growth with […more]
On Tuesday August 8, Cisco will announce its quarterly results. While Cisco has been a tremendous investment during the 90’s, the question facing portfolio managers today, is, “What am I paying for in today’s price?” […more]
A corporate performance metric should provide insights into what a firm is worth. Most money managers utilize common earnings-based measures of corporate performance and value, which are suspect and easy to manipulate. Applied Finance developed the Economic Margin (EM) framework to remove the noise inherent in accounting data.
Traditional accounting-based valuation methods provide an incomplete view of a company’s value by not accounting for the investment needed to generate the earnings, cost of capital, inflation or cash flow. […more]