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Looking Back, Looking Forward – 2021Q2

July 16, 2021

Corporate America is chugging along and reporting strong earnings. For the SP500 index, 87% of its members have reported actual 21Q1 EPS above estimates, well above the five-year average of 74%. In aggregate, SP500 companies’ […more]

Looking Backward and Forward – Q1 2021 Review

April 9, 2021

We stressed in our 20Q4 newsletter that over longer time horizons, since the mid-90s, Large and Growth factors have not consistently generated alpha. This observation was quickly proven true YTD, as Large and Growth significantly lagged Small and Value. While those traditionally defined style factors are helpful in explaining short-term performance, we believe in the long term, it is valuation that delivers alpha. […more]

Looking Backward and Forward – Q4 2020 Review

January 11, 2021

Incorporating the latest 10 Yr US Treasury yield into our market derived discount rate calculation, the Equity Risk Premium (ERP) per our estimates, is currently at ~6.8% for nonfinancial US firms in nominal terms, significantly higher than the historical median and average of ~4.5%. With the risk free rate historically low, equity investors seem to be demanding a fair amount of protection, though the market appears overvalued despite the high ERP. […more]

COVID-19 Pandemic and AFCM Strategies Update

March 18, 2020

The past four weeks have been surreal. The S&P500 lost nearly 30% of its value with extreme volatility day in and day out, and the busiest cities in the US and most of Europe are in lockdown. What happened in China is happening to a lot of us, and we didn’t expect that. No country can fully prepare for events like this, unless they have experienced something similar before. Singapore, Taiwan, Hongkong, and South Korea have done a commendable job responding to Covid-19, possibly because they had the painful experience dealing with SARS (2003) and learned from it. The US […more]

Looking Backward and Forward Q4 2019

January 7, 2020

2019 was a triumphant year for the US large cap equity market, with the S&P500 index up 31% on a total return basis. The resolution of two major concerns in the year, namely the US […more]

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